Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
So this year it is a constant battle to keep up with changes to schedules and I lost a skirmish last week with details of the postponed games. The predictions for last week are what I would have given if I had the match details correct.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Rugby | 5.90 | 5.61 | 0.30 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.80 | 6.21 | -0.40 |
| Stade Toulousain | 4.92 | 4.80 | 0.10 |
| La Rochelle | 4.58 | 2.32 | 2.30 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.27 | 3.22 | 1.10 |
| RC Toulonnais | 3.87 | 3.56 | 0.30 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 2.90 | 2.83 | 0.10 |
| Montpellier | 2.13 | 2.30 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.50 | -3.22 | 2.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.78 | -0.47 | -1.30 |
| Section Paloise | -3.56 | -4.48 | 0.90 |
| Brive | -4.37 | -3.26 | -1.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -4.53 | -4.13 | -0.40 |
| SU Agen | -9.06 | -4.72 | -4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 22 | 26 – 16 | -0.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Nov 23 | 9 – 6 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais | Nov 22 | 35 – 29 | -2.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne | Nov 28 | Clermont Auvergne | -0.60 |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Nov 28 | La Rochelle | 14.50 |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris | Nov 28 | Lyon Rugby | 11.90 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 28 | Montpellier | 4.70 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 28 | Racing-Metro 92 | 15.80 |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise | Nov 28 | RC Toulonnais | 12.90 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen | Nov 28 | Stade Toulousain | 19.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »