Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.18 | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.92 | 6.21 | 0.70 |
| La Rochelle | 6.40 | 2.32 | 4.10 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.63 | 3.22 | 1.40 |
| RC Toulonnais | 4.26 | 3.56 | 0.70 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 4.02 | 2.83 | 1.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.25 | 5.61 | -2.40 |
| Montpellier | 1.05 | 2.30 | -1.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.07 | -3.22 | 3.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -3.01 | -0.47 | -2.50 |
| Brive | -3.12 | -3.26 | 0.10 |
| Section Paloise | -3.53 | -4.48 | 0.90 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -5.90 | -4.13 | -1.80 |
| SU Agen | -12.67 | -4.72 | -7.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 31 | 25 – 23 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jan 30 | 36 – 37 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise | Jan 31 | 17 – 18 | 12.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 30 | 22 – 24 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 01 | 29 – 9 | 7.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 07 | Montpellier | 9.40 |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby | Feb 06 | Clermont Auvergne | 4.50 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Feb 08 | Castres Olympique | 8.10 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle | Feb 08 | Racing-Metro 92 | 7.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »