Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 6.91 | 7.35 | -0.40 |
| Bristol | 4.84 | 1.28 | 3.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.71 | 4.96 | -1.30 |
| Wasps | 3.46 | 5.66 | -2.20 |
| Harlequins | 0.41 | -1.08 | 1.50 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.83 | -2.48 | 0.70 |
| Bath | -2.09 | 2.14 | -4.20 |
| Gloucester | -2.90 | -1.02 | -1.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | -6.11 | -6.14 | 0.00 |
| London Irish | -6.26 | -8.05 | 1.80 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.40 | -10.00 | 3.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -6.84 | -5.71 | -1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 37 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Bath | Jan 30 | 48 – 3 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 31 | 26 – 31 | 4.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 31 | 15 – 25 | -4.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 01 | 31 – 22 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Harlequins | Feb 01 | 17 – 49 | 11.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 31 | 17 – 21 | -10.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Feb 07 | Bath | 2.00 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 07 | Bristol | 5.60 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 07 | Leicester Tigers | 5.20 |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Gloucester | Feb 07 | London Irish | 1.10 |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 07 | Exeter Chiefs | -8.80 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Feb 07 | Wasps | 9.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »