February 16, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

More weird stuff this week. A game that was previously listed as Round 12 is now listed as Round 14. Also because the game scheduled for last week was not played, my last week results refer to the previous week for which I have already published the result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 9.09 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.08 5.66 -2.60
Connacht 1.35 0.70 0.60
Scarlets 0.71 1.98 -1.30
Cardiff Blues -0.20 0.08 -0.30
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.46 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.35 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.64 -15.37 -0.30

 

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 20 – 30 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 Leinster -20.30
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 Glasgow Warriors 0.50
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 Scarlets 12.60
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 Ospreys 20.70
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 Connacht 8.10
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 Edinburgh 0.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »