May 4, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.88 14.49 0.40
Blues 7.68 7.80 -0.10
Hurricanes 6.55 7.13 -0.60
Chiefs 4.27 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.19 1.47 1.70
Highlanders 3.11 2.70 0.40
Reds 2.75 1.59 1.20
Rebels -4.40 -3.51 -0.90
Waratahs -8.87 -5.02 -3.80
Western Force -11.18 -13.05 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Apr 30 41 – 22 8.10 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 01 39 – 19 8.00 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 01 21 – 9 20.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 08 Crusaders 16.10
2 Reds vs. Brumbies May 08 Reds 5.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »