Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 8.10 | 7.35 | 0.80 |
| Bristol | 6.09 | 1.28 | 4.80 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.62 | 4.96 | -1.30 |
| Harlequins | 3.28 | -1.08 | 4.40 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.77 | -2.48 | 1.70 |
| Wasps | -1.36 | 5.66 | -7.00 |
| Gloucester | -2.11 | -1.02 | -1.10 |
| Bath | -3.06 | 2.14 | -5.20 |
| Leicester Tigers | -3.54 | -6.14 | 2.60 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.31 | -10.00 | 3.70 |
| London Irish | -7.49 | -8.05 | 0.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -9.55 | -5.71 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 107 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Sale Sharks | May 15 | 20 – 24 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | May 16 | 35 – 29 | -3.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors | May 16 | 23 – 19 | 13.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | May 18 | 39 – 7 | 10.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | May 18 | 18 – 10 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 19 | 12 – 31 | -10.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. London Irish | May 29 | Gloucester | 9.90 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | May 29 | Sale Sharks | 2.00 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Bath | May 30 | Harlequins | 10.80 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Wasps | May 30 | Northampton Saints | 5.10 |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers | May 30 | Leicester Tigers | -1.50 |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 31 | Exeter Chiefs | 18.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »