Posts from September 2021 (23)

September 30, 2021

Nature Total Landscaping

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Academic journals keep expanding, especially with the growth of open-access journals. Some publishers have reacted to this by creating a bunch of new journals. A few of these publishers give all the journals related names. Nature has Nature Genetics and Nature Communications and Nature Scientific Reports. The BMJ has BMJ Open and BMJ Nutrition, Prevention and Healthcare. The Lancet has The Lancet Public Health and The Lancet Regional Health — Western Pacific and others.

These journals are not the same as the parent journal.  You might or might not think a paper published in Nature was especially reliable because it’s hard to publish in Nature; that’s much less true for Nature Scientific Reports. You might comment that research has been published “in prestigious medical journal The Lancet“, but that’s misleading if it was actually published in The Lancet Regional Health — Western Pacific. I think the importance of journal rankings is vastly overrated, but if you’re going to rely on it you need to get it right.

Back in November, the Trump Campaign held a famous press conference that was not exactly at the Four Seasons hotel.  The label Nature Total Landscaping for these additional journals is a bit unfair — Four Seasons Total Landscaping isn’t even trying to be in the posh hotel business — but it was irresistible to science social media.

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September 28, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 11.38 10.69 0.70
Ulster 7.03 7.41 -0.40
Glasgow 4.07 3.69 0.40
Bulls 3.06 3.65 -0.60
Edinburgh 2.34 2.90 -0.60
Connacht 1.06 1.72 -0.70
Ospreys 1.04 0.94 0.10
Cardiff Rugby 0.55 -0.11 0.70
Stormers -0.18 0.00 -0.20
Scarlets -0.21 -0.77 0.60
Sharks -0.77 -0.07 -0.70
Lions -3.11 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.32 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -7.02 -6.92 -0.10
Zebre -14.27 -13.47 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Lions Sep 25 26 – 38 -3.10 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Sep 25 33 – 21 4.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Glasgow Sep 25 35 – 29 10.20 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Sep 25 22 – 18 2.00 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Sep 26 26 – 22 10.20 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Bulls Sep 26 31 – 3 17.60 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Sharks Sep 26 42 – 17 17.30 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Ospreys Sep 26 23 – 27 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Bulls Oct 02 Connacht 4.50
2 Scarlets vs. Lions Oct 02 Scarlets 9.40
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Oct 02 Edinburgh -0.20
4 Dragons vs. Leinster Oct 02 Leinster -15.90
5 Glasgow vs. Sharks Oct 03 Glasgow 11.30
6 Zebre vs. Ulster Oct 03 Ulster -14.80
7 Munster vs. Stormers Oct 03 Munster 18.10
8 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 03 Ospreys 5.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.97 6.83 1.10
La Rochelle 7.11 6.78 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 6.37 6.13 0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 5.81 5.42 0.40
Lyon Rugby 5.25 4.15 1.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.14 5.09 -1.00
RC Toulonnais 1.50 1.82 -0.30
Montpellier 0.88 -0.01 0.90
Castres Olympique 0.43 0.94 -0.50
Stade Francais Paris -0.05 1.20 -1.30
Section Paloise -2.31 -2.25 -0.10
Brive -2.92 -3.19 0.30
Biarritz -3.09 -2.78 -0.30
USA Perpignan -3.72 -2.78 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Brive Sep 25 29 – 10 14.80 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Biarritz Sep 25 59 – 17 15.10 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Sep 25 23 – 22 3.60 TRUE
4 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Sep 25 34 – 10 4.80 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Sep 26 24 – 20 8.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. RC Toulonnais Sep 26 12 – 9 1.10 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne Sep 27 27 – 15 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 02 Brive 3.60
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Bordeaux-Begles Oct 02 Lyon Rugby 5.90
3 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle Oct 02 Montpellier 0.30
4 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 02 USA Perpignan 5.10
5 Biarritz vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 03 Stade Toulousain -4.60
6 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Oct 03 Castres Olympique 5.40
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 Oct 04 Clermont Auvergne 4.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 6.93 5.66 1.30
Exeter Chiefs 5.38 7.35 -2.00
Sale Sharks 4.09 4.96 -0.90
Bath 1.59 2.14 -0.50
Harlequins -0.87 -1.08 0.20
Northampton Saints -1.09 -2.48 1.40
Bristol -1.33 1.28 -2.60
Gloucester -2.43 -1.02 -1.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.05 -3.52 0.50
Saracens -3.65 -5.00 1.40
Leicester Tigers -4.16 -6.14 2.00
Worcester Warriors -5.13 -5.71 0.60
London Irish -7.88 -8.05 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 41.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 26 – 33 7.80 FALSE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 26 13 – 20 11.00 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Sep 26 24 – 26 12.50 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 26 35 – 29 9.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 26 44 – 8 10.20 TRUE
6 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Sep 27 31 – 31 -8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 02 Bristol 1.60
2 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Oct 02 Northampton Saints 11.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 03 Leicester Tigers 4.00
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Oct 03 Wasps -5.50
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Oct 03 Worcester Warriors 1.80
6 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 04 Sale Sharks 3.20

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 19.20 14.53 4.70
Rabbitohs 16.22 7.73 8.50
Panthers 13.86 8.88 5.00
Sea Eagles 10.99 -4.77 15.80
Eels 2.54 1.68 0.90
Roosters 2.23 10.25 -8.00
Titans 1.05 -7.22 8.30
Raiders -1.10 6.98 -8.10
Sharks -1.10 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -6.54 -2.61 -3.90
Dragons -7.99 -4.95 -3.00
Broncos -8.90 -11.16 2.30
Warriors -8.99 -1.84 -7.10
Bulldogs -10.25 -7.62 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.94 -3.07 -7.90
Cowboys -12.27 -8.05 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 145 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 24 36 – 16 2.10 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Panthers Sep 25 6 – 10 7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Oct 03 Rabbitohs -2.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.74 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Waikato 5.83 2.52 3.30
Wellington 5.73 5.62 0.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.48 4.07 0.40
Canterbury 4.30 6.44 -2.10
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.74 5.20 -2.50
Taranaki 1.92 -4.52 6.40
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -10.00 -4.75 -5.20
Southland -10.07 -10.39 0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -11.32 -14.72 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 24 22 – 39 11.00 FALSE
2 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 25 16 – 19 -12.20 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 25 31 – 19 0.60 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 26 28 – 31 6.10 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 26 28 – 55 8.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 Waikato -12.30
2 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 02 Otago -3.10
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Oct 02 Bay of Plenty 0.50
4 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 03 Tasman 23.30

 

September 22, 2021

An important graph

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From David Hood on Twitter, this graph shows leaving-home-ness in Aotearoa and the West Island, based on Google’s phone mobility data

The most important point about the graph, to me, is that the black dots follow a horizontal line (and the blue dots mostly follow a set of three horizontal lines).  This says that level 4 restrictions (and level 3, in RoNZ) were not eroding over time.  People were staying home just as much at the end as the beginning, even after four weeks and a much reduced case load.

The second important point is that the cluster of blue dots in the middle is a bit below the rest of the middle. Level 3 is slightly more effective, in terms of people staying home, than the Victoria and NSW and ACT restrictions. Level 3 is still a risk: it relies on people being at least as careful about masks and distancing and not accidentally flying to Wanaka as in level 4. Experts seem to be worried that it might be a bad idea, but to pretty much agree it’s still an effort at elimination.

How is that possible, given all the news about level 4 breaks? Well, Auckland is a big place. If 1% of people committed some serious breach of the rules and 1% of that 1% were reported, you’d have 160 reports.

September 21, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

A caveat regarding these predictions. This is a competition where four teams have been added, and there is little information about the performance of those new teams against the existing teams. There is also little information concerning the effect of travel when the new teams are in a different continent. I have used previous form from the Pro14, Rainbow Cup, Super Rugby, and Super Rugby Unlocked but have not been able to tune model parameters using years of past data in the way I usually do, nor obtain initial ratings to my satisfaction. Particularly early in the competition, results may be erratic.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.79 14.79 -0.00
Munster 10.69 10.69 0.00
Ulster 7.41 7.41 -0.00
Glasgow 3.69 3.69 0.00
Bulls 3.65 3.65 0.00
Edinburgh 2.90 2.90 0.00
Connacht 1.72 1.72 0.00
Ospreys 0.94 0.94 0.00
Stormers 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Sharks -0.07 -0.07 -0.00
Cardiff Rugby -0.11 -0.11 -0.00
Scarlets -0.77 -0.77 -0.00
Lions -3.91 -3.91 0.00
Benetton -4.50 -4.50 -0.00
Dragons -6.92 -6.92 0.00
Zebre -13.47 -13.47 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Lions Sep 25 Lions -3.10
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Sep 25 Cardiff Rugby 4.70
3 Ulster vs. Glasgow Sep 25 Ulster 10.20
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Sep 25 Benetton 2.00
5 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Sep 26 Edinburgh 10.20
6 Leinster vs. Bulls Sep 26 Leinster 17.60
7 Munster vs. Sharks Sep 26 Munster 17.30
8 Dragons vs. Ospreys Sep 26 Ospreys -2.90

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.88 6.83 1.10
Racing-Metro 92 6.57 6.13 0.40
La Rochelle 6.29 6.78 -0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 5.60 5.42 0.20
Lyon Rugby 5.05 4.15 0.90
Clermont Auvergne 4.24 5.09 -0.90
RC Toulonnais 1.59 1.82 -0.20
Castres Olympique 1.04 0.94 0.10
Montpellier 0.76 -0.01 0.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.67 1.20 -1.90
Section Paloise -2.18 -2.25 0.10
Biarritz -2.27 -2.78 0.50
Brive -2.71 -3.19 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.81 -2.78 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Racing-Metro 92 Sep 18 28 – 19 -3.20 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Section Paloise Sep 18 30 – 13 5.20 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles Sep 18 23 – 23 2.20 FALSE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. USA Perpignan Sep 18 47 – 3 13.50 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 19 15 – 17 -0.50 TRUE
6 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Sep 19 23 – 22 4.80 TRUE
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Sep 20 38 – 5 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Brive Sep 25 Bordeaux-Begles 14.80
2 La Rochelle vs. Biarritz Sep 25 La Rochelle 15.10
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Sep 25 Section Paloise 3.60
4 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Sep 25 Stade Francais Paris 4.80
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Sep 26 Racing-Metro 92 8.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. RC Toulonnais Sep 26 USA Perpignan 1.10
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne Sep 27 Stade Toulousain 10.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.15 7.35 -1.20
Wasps 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Sale Sharks 4.58 4.96 -0.40
Bath 2.52 2.14 0.40
Bristol -0.07 1.28 -1.40
Harlequins -0.61 -1.08 0.50
Gloucester -1.64 -1.02 -0.60
Northampton Saints -1.87 -2.48 0.60
Saracens -3.65 -5.00 1.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.99 -3.52 -0.50
Leicester Tigers -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Worcester Warriors -5.39 -5.71 0.30
London Irish -8.37 -8.05 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Sep 18 9 – 26 10.80 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 19 34 – 19 -9.00 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Sep 19 34 – 20 3.00 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Sep 19 36 – 24 6.80 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 19 20 – 19 7.30 TRUE
6 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 20 20 – 26 2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 Gloucester 7.80
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 26 Bath 11.00
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Sep 26 Exeter Chiefs 12.50
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 26 Harlequins 9.30
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 26 Wasps 10.20
6 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Sep 27 Sale Sharks -8.50

 

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