Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 6.15 | 7.35 | -1.20 |
| Wasps | 5.66 | 5.66 | -0.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.58 | 4.96 | -0.40 |
| Bath | 2.52 | 2.14 | 0.40 |
| Bristol | -0.07 | 1.28 | -1.40 |
| Harlequins | -0.61 | -1.08 | 0.50 |
| Gloucester | -1.64 | -1.02 | -0.60 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.87 | -2.48 | 0.60 |
| Saracens | -3.65 | -5.00 | 1.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.99 | -3.52 | -0.50 |
| Leicester Tigers | -4.95 | -6.14 | 1.20 |
| Worcester Warriors | -5.39 | -5.71 | 0.30 |
| London Irish | -8.37 | -8.05 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Saracens | Sep 18 | 9 – 26 | 10.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Sep 19 | 34 – 19 | -9.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | Sep 19 | 34 – 20 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish | Sep 19 | 36 – 24 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Sep 19 | 20 – 19 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Sep 20 | 20 – 26 | 2.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Sep 25 | Gloucester | 7.80 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons | Sep 26 | Bath | 11.00 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Sep 26 | Exeter Chiefs | 12.50 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors | Sep 26 | Harlequins | 9.30 |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Bristol | Sep 26 | Wasps | 10.20 |
| 6 | London Irish vs. Sale Sharks | Sep 27 | Sale Sharks | -8.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »