Top 14 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.20 | 6.83 | 0.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.67 | 6.13 | 0.50 |
| La Rochelle | 6.41 | 6.78 | -0.40 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 4.95 | 5.42 | -0.50 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.92 | 5.09 | -0.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.32 | 4.15 | 0.20 |
| RC Toulonnais | 1.40 | 1.82 | -0.40 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.66 | 0.94 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.66 | 1.20 | -0.50 |
| Montpellier | 0.41 | -0.01 | 0.40 |
| Section Paloise | -1.96 | -2.25 | 0.30 |
| Biarritz | -2.32 | -2.78 | 0.50 |
| Brive | -2.69 | -3.19 | 0.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.27 | -2.78 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 42.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Sep 04 | 27 – 15 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brive vs. USA Perpignan | Sep 05 | 36 – 15 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Sep 05 | 16 – 12 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Sep 05 | 21 – 36 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Montpellier | Sep 05 | 24 – 24 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne | Sep 06 | 28 – 19 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain | Sep 06 | 16 – 20 | 6.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique | Sep 11 | Clermont Auvergne | 10.80 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Brive | Sep 11 | Montpellier | 9.60 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Lyon Rugby | Sep 11 | Section Paloise | 0.20 |
| 4 | USA Perpignan vs. Biarritz | Sep 11 | USA Perpignan | 5.50 |
| 5 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris | Sep 12 | Bordeaux-Begles | 10.80 |
| 6 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle | Sep 12 | Racing-Metro 92 | 6.80 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. RC Toulonnais | Sep 13 | Stade Toulousain | 12.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »