October 12, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.15 7.35 -0.20
Wasps 6.00 5.66 0.30
Sale Sharks 3.23 4.96 -1.70
Bath 1.31 2.14 -0.80
Harlequins 0.29 -1.08 1.40
Northampton Saints -1.23 -2.48 1.30
Gloucester -1.73 -1.02 -0.70
Bristol -2.22 1.28 -3.50
Saracens -2.83 -5.00 2.20
Newcastle Falcons -3.10 -3.52 0.40
Leicester Tigers -4.00 -6.14 2.10
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -5.71 -1.00
London Irish -7.75 -8.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 09 52 – 24 4.70 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 10 42 – 5 16.30 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Oct 10 33 – 32 -0.70 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 10 16 – 21 1.50 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 10 37 – 23 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 11 26 – 20 12.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 16 Sale Sharks 7.40
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 17 Newcastle Falcons 3.60
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 17 Wasps 3.30
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 Worcester Warriors 1.80
5 Bath vs. Saracens Oct 18 Bath 8.60
6 London Irish vs. Gloucester Oct 18 Gloucester -1.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »