Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.85 | 6.83 | 2.00 |
| La Rochelle | 7.06 | 6.78 | 0.30 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.82 | 5.42 | 1.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.71 | 6.13 | -0.40 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.13 | 4.15 | 1.00 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.43 | 5.09 | -0.70 |
| Montpellier | 2.74 | -0.01 | 2.70 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.19 | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.49 | 1.82 | -2.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.52 | 0.94 | -1.50 |
| Section Paloise | -2.37 | -2.25 | -0.10 |
| Brive | -2.69 | -3.19 | 0.50 |
| Biarritz | -3.46 | -2.78 | -0.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.05 | -2.78 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne | Oct 31 | 25 – 9 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Brive | Oct 31 | 23 – 22 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby | Oct 31 | 30 – 8 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 31 | 27 – 18 | 2.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris | Oct 31 | 18 – 9 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Biarritz | Oct 31 | 13 – 9 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle | Oct 31 | 22 – 13 | -5.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 06 | La Rochelle | 6.70 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Nov 07 | Racing-Metro 92 | -1.90 |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 07 | Lyon Rugby | 12.20 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Biarritz | Nov 07 | Section Paloise | 7.60 |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier | Nov 07 | Stade Francais Paris | 4.00 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 07 | Stade Toulousain | 19.40 |
| 7 | Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais | Nov 08 | Clermont Auvergne | 11.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »