Top 14 Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.60 | 6.83 | 1.80 |
| La Rochelle | 8.00 | 6.78 | 1.20 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 7.15 | 5.42 | 1.70 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 4.65 | 6.13 | -1.50 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.62 | 4.15 | 0.50 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.40 | 5.09 | -0.70 |
| Montpellier | 2.69 | -0.01 | 2.70 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.18 | 0.94 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.21 | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.41 | 1.82 | -2.20 |
| Brive | -2.11 | -3.19 | 1.10 |
| Section Paloise | -2.56 | -2.25 | -0.30 |
| Biarritz | -3.68 | -2.78 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.97 | -2.78 | -1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Stade Francais Paris | Nov 28 | 17 – 14 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise | Nov 28 | 36 – 8 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 28 | 25 – 24 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 28 | 14 – 37 | 5.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Brive | Nov 28 | 18 – 11 | 18.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Lyon Rugby | Nov 28 | 19 – 13 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Auvergne | Nov 28 | 26 – 24 | -2.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 05 | Bordeaux-Begles | 5.10 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Dec 05 | Castres Olympique | 2.00 |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Biarritz | Dec 05 | Clermont Auvergne | 14.60 |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Brive | Dec 05 | Lyon Rugby | 13.20 |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 05 | Montpellier | 13.20 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais | Dec 05 | Section Paloise | 4.40 |
| 7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle | Dec 06 | La Rochelle | -1.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »