December 7, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.23 7.35 -2.10
Saracens 2.39 -5.00 7.40
Wasps 2.08 5.66 -3.60
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Harlequins 0.66 -1.08 1.70
Leicester Tigers 0.59 -6.14 6.70
Northampton Saints 0.02 -2.48 2.50
Gloucester -0.31 -1.02 0.70
Bristol -2.94 1.28 -4.20
Bath -3.94 2.14 -6.10
Newcastle Falcons -4.01 -3.52 -0.50
London Irish -4.27 -8.05 3.80
Worcester Warriors -9.09 -5.71 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 05 18 – 15 8.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Dec 05 27 – 10 5.90 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 05 16 – 14 4.90 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 05 43 – 21 2.20 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Dec 05 40 – 19 6.90 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Dec 05 32 – 31 -7.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Dec 27 Bath 0.90
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 Bristol 1.00
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Dec 27 Harlequins 5.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 27 Sale Sharks -1.50
5 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 Saracens 16.00
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Dec 27 Wasps 10.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »