Top 14 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.83 | 6.83 | 1.00 |
| La Rochelle | 7.48 | 6.78 | 0.70 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.87 | 5.42 | 1.50 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.26 | 4.15 | 1.10 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 4.76 | 6.13 | -1.40 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.45 | 5.09 | -0.60 |
| Montpellier | 4.11 | -0.01 | 4.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.92 | 0.94 | -0.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | 0.05 | 1.82 | -1.80 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.10 | 1.20 | -1.30 |
| Section Paloise | -2.19 | -2.25 | 0.10 |
| Brive | -2.94 | -3.19 | 0.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.09 | -2.78 | -1.30 |
| Biarritz | -5.05 | -2.78 | -2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 30 | 23 – 10 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Biarritz | Jan 30 | 33 – 10 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Montpellier | Jan 30 | 23 – 29 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 30 | 15 – 20 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby | Jan 30 | 23 – 28 | -2.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne | Jan 31 | 28 – 20 | -1.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 31 | 26 – 24 | 6.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 06 | Stade Toulousain | -5.40 |
| 2 | Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 06 | Lyon Rugby | 11.90 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Feb 06 | Montpellier | 12.80 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive | Feb 06 | Racing-Metro 92 | 14.20 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 06 | RC Toulonnais | 5.60 |
| 6 | Biarritz vs. La Rochelle | Feb 07 | La Rochelle | -6.00 |
| 7 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Feb 07 | Clermont Auvergne | 4.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »