Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 4.79 | -5.00 | 9.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.81 | 7.35 | -3.50 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.94 | 4.96 | -2.00 |
| Wasps | 2.27 | 5.66 | -3.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | 1.98 | -6.14 | 8.10 |
| Gloucester | 1.73 | -1.02 | 2.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 0.62 | -2.48 | 3.10 |
| Harlequins | -0.02 | -1.08 | 1.10 |
| Bristol | -1.48 | 1.28 | -2.80 |
| London Irish | -4.01 | -8.05 | 4.00 |
| Bath | -6.18 | 2.14 | -8.30 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.61 | -3.52 | -4.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.45 | -5.71 | -4.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 06 | 37 – 21 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps | Feb 06 | 26 – 27 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. London Irish | Feb 06 | 24 – 7 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 06 | 14 – 36 | 4.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 06 | 36 – 16 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Bath | Feb 06 | 40 – 3 | 13.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. London Irish | Feb 13 | Bristol | 7.00 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Feb 13 | Exeter Chiefs | 6.60 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Feb 13 | Leicester Tigers | 5.90 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 13 | Sale Sharks | 17.90 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Harlequins | Feb 13 | Saracens | 9.30 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Bath | Feb 13 | Wasps | 12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »