NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11.83 | 14.73 | -2.90 |
| Broncos | 9.30 | 9.07 | 0.20 |
| Storm | 6.85 | 6.15 | 0.70 |
| Roosters | 6.18 | 3.08 | 3.10 |
| Sharks | 6.18 | 2.94 | 3.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.88 | -0.48 | 2.40 |
| Cowboys | 0.31 | 2.47 | -2.20 |
| Knights | -0.28 | 1.84 | -2.10 |
| Warriors | -0.83 | -0.07 | -0.80 |
| Dolphins | -3.16 | -7.09 | 3.90 |
| Eels | -3.90 | 0.14 | -4.00 |
| Raiders | -4.49 | -4.31 | -0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | -6.30 | 0.87 | -7.20 |
| Bulldogs | -6.99 | -13.35 | 6.40 |
| Dragons | -8.17 | -6.93 | -1.20 |
| Titans | -9.43 | -7.89 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.99 | -13.15 | 2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors vs. Titans | Apr 25 | 24 – 27 | 18.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 18 – 60 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | 54 – 20 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Apr 26 | 32 – 18 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | Apr 27 | 10 – 34 | -16.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Apr 27 | 20 – 26 | -8.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dolphins vs. Knights | Apr 28 | 14 – 18 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Apr 28 | 0 – 40 | -3.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | May 02 | Panthers | -15.10 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | May 03 | Sea Eagles | 9.40 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | May 03 | Broncos | 6.10 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | May 04 | Bulldogs | 7.00 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Storm | May 04 | Storm | -13.30 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Dolphins | May 04 | Cowboys | 6.50 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Warriors | May 05 | Knights | 7.60 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Dragons | May 05 | Sharks | 17.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Comments
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Great prediction for last games and the this weekend prediction
3 weeks ago
How do you calculate the home team advantage? Some teams have a 2.98 and some have 2.95, 3.03 etc. Is it previous home games against the opposition, this years record at home?
3 weeks ago
Figures are rounded to 2 decimal places
2 weeks ago
Great prediction..👏👏
3 weeks ago
Great prediction for last game I’ll love to see how your prediction for round 9 will go 👍👍👍
3 weeks ago