February 15, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.03 6.78 0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 6.71 5.42 1.30
Stade Toulousain 6.48 6.83 -0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.16 6.13 -1.00
Lyon Rugby 4.88 4.15 0.70
Montpellier 4.33 -0.01 4.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.07 5.09 -1.00
Castres Olympique 1.51 0.94 0.60
Stade Francais Paris 0.73 1.20 -0.50
RC Toulonnais -0.31 1.82 -2.10
Section Paloise -2.10 -2.25 0.10
USA Perpignan -3.22 -2.78 -0.40
Brive -3.32 -3.19 -0.10
Biarritz -4.60 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 27 – 20 -1.30 FALSE
2 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Dec 27 35 – 29 13.30 TRUE
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 28 – 29 14.70 FALSE
4 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 21 – 18 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Montpellier Feb 20 Montpellier -1.20
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 20 Castres Olympique 3.10
3 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 20 La Rochelle 9.50
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 20 Stade Toulousain -2.10
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Biarritz Feb 20 Stade Francais Paris 11.80
6 RC Toulonnais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 20 RC Toulonnais 9.40
7 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Feb 21 Bordeaux-Begles 8.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »