February 22, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.76 6.78 -0.00
Bordeaux-Begles 6.33 5.42 0.90
Stade Toulousain 6.12 6.83 -0.70
Racing-Metro 92 5.55 6.13 -0.60
Lyon Rugby 4.94 4.15 0.80
Clermont Auvergne 4.34 5.09 -0.80
Montpellier 4.27 -0.01 4.30
Stade Francais Paris 1.74 1.20 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.45 0.94 0.50
RC Toulonnais -0.23 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -1.74 -2.25 0.50
Brive -3.27 -3.19 -0.10
USA Perpignan -3.30 -2.78 -0.50
Biarritz -5.60 -2.78 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Montpellier Feb 20 16 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 20 19 – 17 3.10 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 20 31 – 27 9.50 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 20 27 – 22 -2.10 FALSE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Biarritz Feb 20 65 – 19 11.80 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 20 29 – 18 9.40 TRUE
7 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Feb 21 13 – 16 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 27 Brive 3.50
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. USA Perpignan Feb 27 Clermont Auvergne 14.10
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Biarritz Feb 27 Lyon Rugby 17.00
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 27 Montpellier 9.00
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 27 Racing-Metro 92 10.60
6 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Feb 27 La Rochelle -2.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 27 Stade Toulousain 6.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »