Super Rugby Predictions for Postponed Game
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
There is one postponed game tonight. I will give predictions for the weekend games tomorrow.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.59 | 13.43 | 1.20 |
| Blues | 9.42 | 9.26 | 0.20 |
| Chiefs | 8.22 | 5.56 | 2.70 |
| Hurricanes | 6.98 | 8.28 | -1.30 |
| Highlanders | 4.40 | 6.54 | -2.10 |
| Brumbies | 3.81 | 3.61 | 0.20 |
| Reds | 1.83 | 1.37 | 0.50 |
| Western Force | -3.91 | -4.96 | 1.10 |
| Waratahs | -6.95 | -9.00 | 2.00 |
| Rebels | -7.92 | -5.79 | -2.10 |
| Moana Pasifika | -10.53 | -10.00 | -0.50 |
| Fijian Drua | -11.63 | -10.00 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 31 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes | Mar 25 | 24 – 19 | -14.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Fijian Drua | Mar 25 | 42 – 27 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Mar 26 | 25 – 32 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Mar 26 | 19 – 34 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Mar 26 | 32 – 20 | 14.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Brumbies | Mar 27 | 38 – 39 | -2.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Blues | Mar 29 | Blues | -20.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »