NRL Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 17.27 | 14.26 | 3.00 |
| Storm | 15.63 | 19.20 | -3.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.86 | 15.81 | -10.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 4.87 | 10.99 | -6.10 |
| Cowboys | 2.43 | -12.27 | 14.70 |
| Roosters | 2.35 | 2.23 | 0.10 |
| Eels | 2.20 | 2.54 | -0.30 |
| Sharks | 0.38 | -1.10 | 1.50 |
| Broncos | 0.16 | -8.90 | 9.10 |
| Raiders | -1.79 | -1.10 | -0.70 |
| Dragons | -5.65 | -7.99 | 2.30 |
| Titans | -6.06 | 1.05 | -7.10 |
| Bulldogs | -7.34 | -10.25 | 2.90 |
| Knights | -9.86 | -6.54 | -3.30 |
| Warriors | -10.73 | -8.99 | -1.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.70 | -10.94 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 116 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 16 | 32 – 12 | -12.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | Jun 17 | 26 – 28 | 6.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Broncos | Jun 17 | 32 – 20 | 19.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Titans | Jun 18 | 18 – 10 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Jun 18 | 6 – 40 | -20.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Roosters | Jun 18 | 26 – 16 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jun 19 | 20 – 18 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 19 | 36 – 12 | 5.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Jun 30 | Storm | -7.80 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Titans | Jul 01 | Titans | -0.80 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Jul 01 | Panthers | 17.90 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jul 02 | Sharks | -4.70 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Jul 02 | Cowboys | 5.30 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | Jul 02 | Rabbitohs | 6.70 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 03 | Warriors | 6.50 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Raiders | Jul 03 | Raiders | -0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, I am in desperate need of your help to assist me to choose the best teams for my tips to bet for this weekend Round 16 NRL games.
Cheers,
Samuel
2 years ago
Tips were posted last week.
2 years ago
Please can you help me predict the scores for round 16 thankyou
2 years ago
Please can you help me predict the scores for round 16 the margin
2 years ago
I’ve gone thru your profile and I love what you do. I will try a bet this week’s NRL Round 16 and see.
2 years ago
Hi David,
I had to comment as I use your predictions as a guide
The first 3 games have been a killer the Underdogs have done really well……yohh!!!
2 years ago