Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 6.42 | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.03 | 5.87 | -0.80 |
| Auckland | 4.87 | 4.50 | 0.40 |
| Waikato | 4.77 | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| North Harbour | 4.15 | 2.31 | 1.80 |
| Tasman | 2.74 | 5.94 | -3.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.39 | 0.10 | 2.30 |
| Wellington | 1.85 | 3.58 | -1.70 |
| Taranaki | 0.55 | 3.63 | -3.10 |
| Otago | -1.72 | -1.63 | -0.10 |
| Northland | -4.02 | -6.68 | 2.70 |
| Counties Manukau | -5.75 | -6.32 | 0.60 |
| Southland | -7.21 | -7.01 | -0.20 |
| Manawatu | -11.74 | -5.97 | -5.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manawatu vs. Tasman | Sep 02 | 26 – 36 | -12.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Northland vs. Auckland | Sep 03 | 23 – 22 | -7.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Sep 03 | 6 – 21 | -0.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Southland vs. Wellington | Sep 03 | 28 – 41 | -5.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 04 | 32 – 28 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Otago vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 04 | 27 – 33 | -0.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 04 | 37 – 12 | 11.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tasman vs. Wellington | Sep 07 | Tasman | 3.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »