September 6, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 7.93 7.93 0.00
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.14 4.14 0.00
Northampton Saints 3.99 3.99 0.00
Harlequins 3.92 3.92 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.67 3.67 0.00
Wasps 0.77 0.77 -0.00
London Irish -1.65 -1.65 -0.00
Bristol -2.43 -2.43 0.00
Saracens -5.00 -5.00 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.76 -8.76 -0.00
Bath -9.15 -9.15 -0.00
Worcester Warriors -12.27 -12.27 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Sep 10 Bristol 11.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 11 Exeter Chiefs 0.20
4 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 11 London Irish 15.10
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 11 Harlequins -8.20
6 Gloucester vs. Wasps Sep 12 Gloucester 9.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »