Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 5.87 | 4.14 | 1.70 |
| Leicester Tigers | 5.64 | 7.93 | -2.30 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 5.27 | 3.67 | 1.60 |
| Gloucester | 4.84 | 5.92 | -1.10 |
| Harlequins | 3.51 | 3.92 | -0.40 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.38 | 3.99 | -0.60 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Saracens | -0.94 | -5.00 | 4.10 |
| London Irish | -1.52 | -1.65 | 0.10 |
| Bristol | -4.36 | -2.43 | -1.90 |
| Bath | -8.75 | -9.15 | 0.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -10.01 | -8.76 | -1.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 08 | 14 – 50 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Oct 09 | 17 – 21 | -9.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 09 | 16 – 26 | 6.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens | Oct 10 | 14 – 34 | -2.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 10 | 36 – 40 | 1.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. London Irish | Oct 15 | Sale Sharks | 11.90 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps | Oct 16 | Exeter Chiefs | 10.00 |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Bristol | Oct 16 | Gloucester | 13.70 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons | Oct 16 | Northampton Saints | 17.90 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Bath | Oct 16 | Saracens | 12.30 |
| 6 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 17 | Harlequins | 2.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »