Top 14 Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.35 | 6.34 | 2.00 |
| La Rochelle | 6.30 | 6.88 | -0.60 |
| Toulon | 4.68 | 4.09 | 0.60 |
| Montpellier | 4.44 | 4.18 | 0.30 |
| Racing 92 | 4.18 | 4.86 | -0.70 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.08 | 5.27 | -1.20 |
| Clermont | 3.90 | 4.05 | -0.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.51 | 2.87 | -0.40 |
| Lyon | 2.43 | 3.10 | -0.70 |
| Stade Francais | 0.90 | -1.05 | 2.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -2.68 | -4.26 | 1.60 |
| Section Paloise | -2.77 | -2.12 | -0.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.36 | -2.75 | -1.60 |
| Brive | -4.70 | -4.20 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. La Rochelle | Oct 08 | 29 – 13 | -3.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | Oct 08 | 26 – 13 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 08 | 36 – 21 | 4.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Oct 08 | 26 – 13 | 13.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 08 | 52 – 3 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Oct 08 | 46 – 10 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Brive | Oct 08 | 47 – 0 | 13.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Oct 15 | Bordeaux Begles | 6.40 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 15 | Stade Toulousain | -6.50 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Oct 15 | Castres Olympique | 11.70 |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Toulon | Oct 15 | La Rochelle | 8.10 |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Lyon | Oct 15 | Montpellier | 8.50 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais | Oct 15 | Section Paloise | 2.80 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont | Oct 15 | Clermont | -1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Great analyse..
You have good predictions..
2 years ago