Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.80 | 6.34 | 2.50 |
| La Rochelle | 5.93 | 6.88 | -0.90 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.38 | 5.27 | -0.90 |
| Toulon | 4.38 | 4.09 | 0.30 |
| Clermont | 4.05 | 4.05 | -0.00 |
| Racing 92 | 4.00 | 4.86 | -0.90 |
| Montpellier | 3.66 | 4.18 | -0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.70 | 2.87 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | 2.14 | 3.10 | -1.00 |
| Stade Francais | 1.85 | -1.05 | 2.90 |
| Section Paloise | -1.61 | -2.12 | 0.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -2.67 | -4.26 | 1.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.18 | -2.75 | -1.40 |
| Brive | -6.17 | -4.20 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 30 | 26 – 22 | -6.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Racing 92 | Oct 30 | 38 – 43 | -3.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont | Oct 30 | 26 – 22 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise | Oct 30 | 21 – 38 | 16.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Oct 30 | 23 – 19 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon | Oct 30 | 28 – 21 | -0.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon | Oct 31 | 27 – 26 | 7.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. La Rochelle | Nov 06 | La Rochelle | -5.60 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 06 | Clermont | 13.20 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 06 | Lyon | 5.90 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 06 | Racing 92 | 14.70 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | Nov 06 | Stade Toulousain | 13.50 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 07 | Section Paloise | 0.50 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Nov 07 | Toulon | 7.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »