Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 5.36 | 7.93 | -2.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.66 | 4.14 | -0.50 |
| Harlequins | 3.09 | 3.92 | -0.80 |
| Gloucester | 3.00 | 5.92 | -2.90 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.24 | 3.67 | -1.40 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.32 | 3.99 | -2.70 |
| Saracens | 0.75 | -5.00 | 5.80 |
| London Irish | 0.21 | -1.65 | 1.90 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -3.19 | -2.43 | -0.80 |
| Bath | -5.80 | -9.15 | 3.30 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.69 | -8.76 | 1.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 62 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Dec 24 | 29 – 20 | 3.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 24 | 20 – 14 | -8.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Dec 25 | 20 – 15 | 13.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Dec 25 | 28 – 13 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Dec 28 | 12 – 15 | 12.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 31 | Sale Sharks | 2.80 |
| 2 | Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons | Jan 01 | Bath | 6.40 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 01 | Saracens | 3.00 |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. London Irish | Jan 01 | Gloucester | 7.30 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Jan 02 | Northampton Saints | 2.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »