Top 14 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.90 | 6.34 | 1.60 |
| La Rochelle | 7.11 | 6.88 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 4.80 | 4.86 | -0.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.43 | 5.27 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais | 4.40 | -1.05 | 5.50 |
| Montpellier | 4.03 | 4.18 | -0.20 |
| Toulon | 3.44 | 4.09 | -0.70 |
| Lyon | 1.95 | 3.10 | -1.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.27 | 2.87 | -1.60 |
| Clermont | 1.11 | 4.05 | -2.90 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -0.68 | -4.26 | 3.60 |
| Section Paloise | -1.90 | -2.12 | 0.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.92 | -2.75 | -2.20 |
| Brive | -5.68 | -4.20 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive | Jan 29 | 37 – 9 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jan 29 | 23 – 18 | 3.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Jan 29 | 34 – 14 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle | Jan 29 | 39 – 36 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Jan 29 | 27 – 16 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais | Jan 29 | 31 – 24 | -3.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Jan 30 | 23 – 9 | 10.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Feb 05 | Stade Toulousain | 15.10 |
| 2 | Brive vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 05 | Brive | 5.70 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 05 | Clermont | 6.30 |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Lyon | Feb 05 | La Rochelle | 11.70 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 | Feb 05 | Racing 92 | -0.20 |
| 6 | Montpellier vs. Toulon | Feb 05 | Montpellier | 7.10 |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 06 | Stade Francais | 6.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »