Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 4.81 | 4.14 | 0.70 |
| London Irish | 2.44 | -1.65 | 4.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.27 | 7.93 | -5.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.17 | 3.99 | -1.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.10 | 3.67 | -1.60 |
| Saracens | 1.95 | -5.00 | 7.00 |
| Gloucester | 1.66 | 5.92 | -4.30 |
| Harlequins | 0.85 | 3.92 | -3.10 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -2.52 | -2.43 | -0.10 |
| Bath | -5.67 | -9.15 | 3.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.11 | -8.76 | 1.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 82 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 18 | 30 – 12 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Feb 18 | 28 – 26 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bath vs. London Irish | Feb 19 | 10 – 25 | -2.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 19 | 38 – 34 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Feb 20 | 24 – 18 | 4.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | Feb 25 | Bath | 1.30 |
| 2 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 26 | Saracens | 13.60 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | Feb 26 | Northampton Saints | 5.00 |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 26 | London Irish | 4.70 |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 27 | Exeter Chiefs | 1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »