Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 6.71 | 7.93 | -1.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 5.18 | 4.14 | 1.00 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.85 | 3.99 | -1.10 |
| London Irish | 2.77 | -1.65 | 4.40 |
| Saracens | 2.42 | -5.00 | 7.40 |
| Harlequins | 0.55 | 3.92 | -3.40 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -0.21 | -2.43 | 2.20 |
| Gloucester | -1.26 | 5.92 | -7.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -1.79 | 3.67 | -5.50 |
| Bath | -3.79 | -9.15 | 5.40 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -10.49 | -8.76 | -1.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol | Apr 23 | 22 – 21 | 3.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 23 | 22 – 25 | -1.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Apr 23 | 35 – 45 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 23 | 5 – 66 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. London Irish | Apr 23 | 45 – 21 | 1.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Saracens | May 07 | Saracens | -1.70 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | May 07 | Bristol | 5.60 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | May 07 | Leicester Tigers | 10.70 |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 07 | London Irish | 9.10 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 07 | Sale Sharks | 20.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »