Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.21 | 17.95 | -1.70 |
| Blues | 13.66 | 12.34 | 1.30 |
| Chiefs | 12.43 | 8.81 | 3.60 |
| Hurricanes | 10.23 | 9.59 | 0.60 |
| Brumbies | 7.51 | 6.64 | 0.90 |
| Highlanders | 2.35 | 5.04 | -2.70 |
| Reds | 0.83 | 1.89 | -1.10 |
| Waratahs | -1.87 | -2.50 | 0.60 |
| Western Force | -5.56 | -5.54 | -0.00 |
| Rebels | -5.92 | -6.19 | 0.30 |
| Fijian Drua | -9.51 | -10.50 | 1.00 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.73 | -8.91 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Apr 28 | 32 – 27 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Apr 28 | 21 – 20 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Blues | Apr 29 | 14 – 30 | -17.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels | Apr 29 | 33 – 43 | 0.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Apr 29 | 34 – 24 | -1.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Reds vs. Western Force | Apr 29 | 31 – 17 | 9.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | May 05 | Chiefs | -6.60 |
| 2 | Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes | May 06 | Hurricanes | -14.20 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Western Force | May 06 | Crusaders | 27.30 |
| 4 | Blues vs. Moana Pasifika | May 06 | Blues | 28.90 |
| 5 | Reds vs. Waratahs | May 06 | Reds | 6.20 |
| 6 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | May 07 | Brumbies | -9.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »