September 14, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.55 8.72 2.80
Canterbury 8.55 9.44 -0.90
North Harbour 5.41 7.75 -2.30
Auckland 5.34 2.15 3.20
Tasman 4.97 2.20 2.80
Bay of Plenty 4.23 4.55 -0.30
Waikato 0.70 3.71 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.11 5.12 -5.00
Taranaki -0.47 -2.98 2.50
Otago -0.58 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.36 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.61 -7.44 1.80
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.07 -14.18 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 13 31 – 29 -13.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay 17.20
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 Auckland 7.60
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 North Harbour 12.80
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 Otago 2.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 Wellington -4.30
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 Canterbury 23.80
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 Tasman 13.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »