Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 5.84 | 7.24 | -1.40 |
| Racing 92 | 5.30 | 3.42 | 1.90 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.84 | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.26 | 4.07 | 0.20 |
| Toulon | 4.26 | 3.11 | 1.10 |
| Stade Francais | 3.14 | 2.62 | 0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.46 | -0.39 | 1.90 |
| Lyon | 1.30 | 2.97 | -1.70 |
| Clermont | 1.29 | 1.47 | -0.20 |
| Section Paloise | 1.16 | -0.44 | 1.60 |
| Bayonne | -0.53 | -1.32 | 0.80 |
| Montpellier | -0.78 | 2.09 | -2.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.08 | -3.64 | -2.40 |
| US Oyonnax | -7.87 | -10.00 | 2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Montpellier | Dec 03 | 34 – 19 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Dec 03 | 29 – 14 | 5.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Dec 03 | 23 – 18 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 03 | 35 – 6 | 16.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Dec 03 | 36 – 13 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 03 | 23 – 29 | -5.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 04 | 27 – 12 | 3.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Dec 23 | Bordeaux Begles | 9.50 |
| 2 | USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne | Dec 23 | USA Perpignan | 0.90 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 24 | Montpellier | 4.30 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax | Dec 24 | Racing 92 | 19.70 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | Dec 24 | Section Paloise | 6.40 |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 24 | Stade Francais | 4.80 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon | Dec 24 | Stade Toulousain | 8.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »