Posts from January 2024 (5)

January 8, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.31 7.24 -0.90
Stade Rochelais 5.73 6.40 -0.70
Racing 92 5.71 3.42 2.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.03 4.07 1.00
Toulon 4.17 3.11 1.10
Stade Francais 2.40 2.62 -0.20
Clermont 1.12 1.47 -0.40
Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.39 1.50
Section Paloise 0.25 -0.44 0.70
Montpellier 0.15 2.09 -1.90
Bayonne -0.63 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -0.77 2.97 -3.70
USA Perpignan -4.50 -3.64 -0.90
US Oyonnax -8.41 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 24 – 23 13.00 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 27 – 17 1.60 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 34 – 30 11.90 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 20 – 29 1.80 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 14 – 14 8.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 45 – 0 11.60 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 27 – 12 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. US Oyonnax Jan 28 Bayonne 14.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Bordeaux Begles 9.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Jan 28 Castres Olympique 6.40
4 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 28 Lyon 10.20
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Montpellier 6.40
6 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 28 Toulon 4.90
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 29 Racing 92 5.90

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.64 6.13 -0.50
Saracens 5.56 6.82 -1.30
Harlequins 4.47 1.93 2.50
Northampton Saints 4.24 2.66 1.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.94 -0.89 4.80
Bristol 2.61 1.00 1.60
Bath 2.03 -1.26 3.30
Sale Sharks 0.85 6.46 -5.60
Gloucester -4.74 -1.45 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.83 -10.63 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 3 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 14 – 22 6.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 36 – 42 8.20 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 19 – 10 5.30 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 17 – 10 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 Harlequins 4.80
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 Northampton Saints 24.10
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 Saracens 7.60
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 Gloucester 0.40

 

January 3, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.23 10.73 0.50
Bulls 10.75 9.00 1.80
Munster 8.10 10.54 -2.40
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 5.98 4.19 1.80
Ulster 5.32 7.80 -2.50
Connacht 4.13 3.17 1.00
Edinburgh 0.65 -2.26 2.90
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Sharks -0.17 0.85 -1.00
Benetton -2.39 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -4.23 -5.16 0.90
Ospreys -4.52 -7.79 3.30
Scarlets -9.96 -2.23 -7.70
Dragons -14.27 -8.14 -6.10
Zebre -17.33 -20.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 30 36 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 19 – 14 -4.90 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 31 16 – 15 10.10 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 01 22 – 9 -4.60 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 27 – 21 0.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 13 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 02 21 – 22 9.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 07 Sharks 1.60
2 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 28 Bulls 12.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.10 3.42 2.70
Bordeaux Begles 5.45 4.07 1.40
Stade Rochelais 5.35 6.40 -1.10
Stade Toulousain 5.33 7.24 -1.90
Toulon 4.59 3.11 1.50
Stade Francais 2.83 2.62 0.20
Clermont 0.68 1.47 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.63 -0.44 1.10
Lyon 0.22 2.97 -2.70
Montpellier -0.26 2.09 -2.40
Bayonne -1.05 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -4.75 -3.64 -1.10
US Oyonnax -8.16 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 35 – 40 2.50 FALSE
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 34 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 27 – 23 -1.20 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 20 – 18 7.50 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 29 – 8 5.50 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 19 – 5 7.60 TRUE
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 13 – 17 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 Bordeaux Begles 13.00
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 Montpellier 1.60
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 Racing 92 11.90
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 Section Paloise 1.80
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 Stade Francais 8.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 Stade Toulousain 11.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 USA Perpignan 9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.93 6.82 -0.90
Leicester Tigers 5.27 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 5.18 -0.89 6.10
Harlequins 3.52 1.93 1.60
Northampton Saints 3.00 2.66 0.30
Bath 2.67 -1.26 3.90
Sale Sharks 2.14 6.46 -4.30
Bristol 1.31 1.00 0.30
Gloucester -5.38 -1.45 -3.90
Newcastle Falcons -12.89 -10.63 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 14 – 24 4.70 FALSE
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 37 – 19 26.30 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 21 – 17 7.60 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 32 – 26 16.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 35 – 22 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 Harlequins -10.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 Sale Sharks 6.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 Exeter Chiefs 8.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 Leicester Tigers 5.30
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 Bath 14.00