United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games
Team Ratings for Delayed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 11.23 | 10.73 | 0.50 |
| Bulls | 10.75 | 9.00 | 1.80 |
| Munster | 8.10 | 10.54 | -2.40 |
| Stormers | 6.44 | 8.93 | -2.50 |
| Glasgow | 5.98 | 4.19 | 1.80 |
| Ulster | 5.32 | 7.80 | -2.50 |
| Connacht | 4.13 | 3.17 | 1.00 |
| Edinburgh | 0.65 | -2.26 | 2.90 |
| Lions | 0.26 | -4.26 | 4.50 |
| Sharks | -0.17 | 0.85 | -1.00 |
| Benetton | -2.39 | -5.12 | 2.70 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -4.23 | -5.16 | 0.90 |
| Ospreys | -4.52 | -7.79 | 3.30 |
| Scarlets | -9.96 | -2.23 | -7.70 |
| Dragons | -14.27 | -8.14 | -6.10 |
| Zebre | -17.33 | -20.25 | 2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benetton vs. Zebre | Dec 30 | 36 – 14 | 15.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow | Dec 31 | 19 – 14 | -4.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Dec 31 | 16 – 15 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Connacht vs. Munster | Jan 01 | 22 – 9 | -4.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby | Jan 02 | 27 – 21 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Jan 02 | 13 – 12 | -3.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Jan 02 | 21 – 22 | 9.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Delayed Games
Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Lions | Jan 07 | Sharks | 1.60 |
| 2 | Bulls vs. Lions | Jan 28 | Bulls | 12.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »