Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 5.93 | 6.82 | -0.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 5.27 | 6.13 | -0.90 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 5.18 | -0.89 | 6.10 |
| Harlequins | 3.52 | 1.93 | 1.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.00 | 2.66 | 0.30 |
| Bath | 2.67 | -1.26 | 3.90 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.14 | 6.46 | -4.30 |
| Bristol | 1.31 | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| Gloucester | -5.38 | -1.45 | -3.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -12.89 | -10.63 | -2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 30 | 14 – 24 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 31 | 37 – 19 | 26.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 31 | 21 – 17 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | Dec 31 | 32 – 26 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Jan 01 | 35 – 22 | 7.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Jan 06 | Harlequins | -10.40 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | Jan 06 | Sale Sharks | 6.80 |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 07 | Exeter Chiefs | 8.20 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Jan 07 | Leicester Tigers | 5.30 |
| 5 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Jan 08 | Bath | 14.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »