NRL Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
This is an update after I realised I should have not given a home ground advantage for the first-named teams for the games played in Los Angeles. I got both results wrong as a result.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.73 | 14.73 | -0.00 |
| Broncos | 9.07 | 9.07 | 0.00 |
| Storm | 6.15 | 6.15 | -0.00 |
| Roosters | 3.08 | 3.08 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 2.94 | 2.94 | 0.00 |
| Cowboys | 2.47 | 2.47 | 0.00 |
| Knights | 1.84 | 1.84 | 0.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.00 |
| Eels | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Warriors | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.48 | -0.48 | 0.00 |
| Raiders | -4.31 | -4.31 | 0.00 |
| Dragons | -6.93 | -6.93 | -0.00 |
| Dolphins | -7.09 | -7.09 | 0.00 |
| Titans | -7.89 | -7.89 | -0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -13.15 | -13.15 | -0.00 |
| Bulldogs | -13.35 | -13.35 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 03 | Rabbitohs | -1.30 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Mar 03 | Broncos | -6.00 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Raiders | Mar 07 | Knights | 9.20 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Mar 08 | Warriors | 4.00 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Panthers | Mar 08 | Panthers | -5.60 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Mar 09 | Eels | 16.50 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Dragons | Mar 09 | Titans | 2.00 |
| 8 | Dolphins vs. Cowboys | Mar 10 | Cowboys | -6.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »