March 11, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.90 14.73 -0.80
Broncos 8.09 9.07 -1.00
Storm 6.99 6.15 0.80
Roosters 4.06 3.08 1.00
Cowboys 3.58 2.47 1.10
Sharks 3.44 2.94 0.50
Knights 0.34 1.84 -1.50
Sea Eagles 0.34 -0.48 0.80
Eels 0.24 0.14 0.10
Rabbitohs 0.05 0.87 -0.80
Warriors -0.57 -0.07 -0.50
Raiders -2.82 -4.31 1.50
Dragons -5.38 -6.93 1.50
Dolphins -8.21 -7.09 -1.10
Titans -9.44 -7.89 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.15 -0.00
Bulldogs -13.46 -13.35 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 03 36 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 03 20 – 10 -6.00 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 07 12 – 28 9.20 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Mar 08 12 – 16 4.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 08 8 – 0 -5.60 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 26 – 8 16.50 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 09 4 – 28 2.00 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Mar 10 18 – 43 -6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 Broncos 11.00
2 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 15 Sharks 19.90
3 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 15 Panthers 16.70
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Raiders 13.30
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 16 Cowboys 6.20
6 Storm vs. Warriors Mar 16 Storm 14.60
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 17 Roosters -0.70
8 Dolphins vs. Dragons Mar 17 Dolphins 0.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Henry Newman

    Winners of this week will be:
    1.Broncos
    2. Sharks
    3. Eels
    4. Raiders
    5.Cowboys
    6. Storm
    7. Roosters
    8. Dragons

    I am a Bronco for life.

    2 months ago

  • avatar
    Erick siki

    I love copying his predictions because when I placed my bet, I atleast win

    2 months ago