AFL Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Demons | 13.95 | 13.91 | 0.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 13.91 | 9.23 | 4.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.59 | 17.47 | -3.90 |
| GWS Giants | 13.21 | 12.60 | 0.60 |
| Collingwood | 10.41 | 14.87 | -4.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 10.06 | 9.73 | 0.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 9.17 | 10.50 | -1.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 7.62 | 8.83 | -1.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.91 | 9.56 | -2.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.05 | 6.04 | -2.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 2.33 | 0.40 | 1.90 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.71 | -0.63 | 1.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -0.06 | -4.60 | 4.50 |
| Richmond Tigers | -6.41 | -6.13 | -0.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -13.10 | -11.08 | -2.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -15.68 | -17.70 | 2.00 |
| North Melbourne | -24.62 | -25.73 | 1.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -41.90 | -43.10 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 13 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 14 | 86 – 81 | 19.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 15 | 69 – 102 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 16 | 107 – 83 | -6.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Mar 16 | 121 – 82 | 49.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 16 | 76 – 68 | 20.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 16 | 99 – 60 | -3.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 17 | 109 – 64 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 17 | 120 – 70 | 60.90 | TRUE |
| 9 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 17 | 93 – 70 | -6.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood | Mar 21 | Collingwood | -18.70 |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 22 | Adelaide Crows | 6.70 |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 23 | Fremantle Dockers | -18.00 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 23 | Melbourne Demons | -27.00 |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 23 | Sydney Swans | 38.60 |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 24 | Western Bulldogs | 13.10 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 24 | Port Adelaide Power | -5.00 |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants | Mar 24 | GWS Giants | -46.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »