AFL Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Demons | 15.81 | 13.91 | 1.90 |
| GWS Giants | 14.55 | 12.60 | 1.90 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.59 | 17.47 | -3.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 12.97 | 9.23 | 3.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 11.00 | 10.50 | 0.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 10.06 | 9.73 | 0.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 9.32 | 8.83 | 0.50 |
| Collingwood | 8.23 | 14.87 | -6.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 6.71 | 9.56 | -2.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.21 | 6.04 | 0.20 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 3.21 | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | 2.90 | -0.63 | 3.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -3.85 | -4.60 | 0.80 |
| Richmond Tigers | -8.10 | -6.13 | -2.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -14.74 | -17.70 | 3.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -14.96 | -11.08 | -3.90 |
| North Melbourne | -25.51 | -25.73 | 0.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -43.24 | -43.10 | -0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood | Mar 21 | 94 – 79 | -18.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 22 | 77 – 96 | 8.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 23 | 76 – 102 | -18.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 23 | 38 – 93 | -27.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 23 | 131 – 101 | 38.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 24 | 115 – 67 | 14.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 24 | 92 – 122 | -5.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants | Mar 24 | 43 – 108 | -46.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Mar 28 | Brisbane Lions | 14.40 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 29 | Carlton Blues | -35.60 |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 29 | Fremantle Dockers | 5.50 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 30 | St Kilda Saints | -17.60 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 30 | Port Adelaide Power | 2.50 |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 31 | Western Bulldogs | 58.50 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 31 | Sydney Swans | -12.10 |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 01 | Geelong Cats | -17.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »