Top 14 Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.14 | 7.24 | -0.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.96 | 6.40 | -0.40 |
| Toulon | 5.45 | 3.11 | 2.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.51 | 2.62 | 0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 0.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.29 | 4.07 | -0.80 |
| Section Paloise | 0.80 | -0.44 | 1.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.03 | -0.39 | 0.40 |
| Montpellier | -0.06 | 2.09 | -2.20 |
| Lyon | -0.29 | 2.97 | -3.30 |
| Clermont | -0.37 | 1.47 | -1.80 |
| Bayonne | -0.97 | -1.32 | 0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.27 | -3.64 | 1.40 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.03 | -10.00 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 140 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 31 | 27 – 10 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Mar 31 | 10 – 12 | 3.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Clermont | Mar 31 | 26 – 10 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. US Oyonnax | Mar 31 | 40 – 21 | 20.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Mar 31 | 31 – 29 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 31 | 43 – 12 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Toulon | Apr 01 | 10 – 46 | 2.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais | Apr 21 | Castres Olympique | 0.60 |
| 2 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Apr 21 | Section Paloise | 7.40 |
| 3 | Stade Francais vs. Bayonne | Apr 21 | Stade Francais | 11.00 |
| 4 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 21 | Toulon | 4.80 |
| 5 | US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 | Apr 21 | Racing 92 | -5.00 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon | Apr 21 | USA Perpignan | 4.50 |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont | Apr 22 | Bordeaux Begles | 10.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »