AFL Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6
A mea culpa this week regarding the predictions. When checking the grounds for the AFL before posting my predictions, I didn’t use the official AFL site and failed to see that all games were in Adelaide. Consequently I had the home ground advantage wrongly specified for all but three games (the two Adelaide teams and Collingwood v Hawthorn). Thus I incorrectly predicted wins for the Dockers, Bulldogs and Tigers. I decided to use the correct predictions this week because otherwise my ratings would get messed up for this week’s predictions.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Demons | 18.17 | 13.91 | 4.30 |
| GWS Giants | 15.60 | 12.60 | 3.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.44 | 17.47 | -4.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 12.32 | 10.50 | 1.80 |
| Carlton Blues | 11.90 | 9.73 | 2.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 10.72 | 8.83 | 1.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 9.09 | 9.23 | -0.10 |
| Collingwood | 8.94 | 14.87 | -5.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 8.17 | 6.04 | 2.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 4.76 | 0.40 | 4.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 3.45 | 9.56 | -6.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.33 | -0.63 | 2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.91 | -4.60 | -0.30 |
| Richmond Tigers | -6.16 | -6.13 | -0.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | -14.80 | -11.08 | -3.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -15.68 | -17.70 | 2.00 |
| North Melbourne | -29.01 | -25.73 | -3.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -43.17 | -43.10 | -0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 04 | 63 – 78 | -3.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne | Apr 05 | 112 – 42 | 38.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 05 | 111 – 42 | 30.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 06 | 78 – 104 | -56.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 06 | 63 – 73 | -6.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 06 | 91 – 95 | -4.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants | Apr 07 | 89 – 117 | -18.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 07 | 60 – 67 | -7.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 07 | 77 – 72 | 26.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 6
Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 11 | Melbourne Demons | 13.70 |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 12 | Western Bulldogs | 23.90 |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 13 | GWS Giants | 23.30 |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 13 | Carlton Blues | 17.40 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 13 | Gold Coast Suns | 18.90 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 13 | Port Adelaide Power | 15.00 |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne | Apr 14 | Geelong Cats | 50.30 |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 14 | Richmond Tigers | -28.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »