AFL Predictions for Week 13
Team Ratings for Week 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 22.28 | 18.20 | 4.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 19.87 | 15.04 | 4.80 |
| Collingwood | 19.03 | 5.39 | 13.60 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.02 | 22.65 | -7.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14.48 | 2.69 | 11.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 13.62 | 21.95 | -8.30 |
| GWS Giants | 8.51 | 9.08 | -0.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.67 | 5.99 | 0.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 6.57 | -6.41 | 13.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 3.10 | 12.60 | -9.50 |
| Carlton Blues | 0.91 | 5.01 | -4.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | -1.32 | -0.21 | -1.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.58 | 0.89 | -6.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -7.22 | 7.63 | -14.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -14.43 | -10.15 | -4.30 |
| North Melbourne | -27.96 | -37.08 | 9.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -32.23 | -34.67 | 2.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.70 | -31.00 | -2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 98 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | May 22 | 127 – 113 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers | May 23 | 81 – 58 | 18.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants | May 24 | 82 – 110 | 8.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions | May 24 | 60 – 93 | 16.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Collingwood | May 24 | 63 – 108 | -47.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 24 | 100 – 51 | 20.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles | May 25 | 128 – 62 | 55.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans | May 25 | 131 – 78 | -0.50 | FALSE |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 25 | 61 – 80 | 2.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 13
Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers | May 29 | Brisbane Lions | 40.50 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 30 | Collingwood | 5.40 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 31 | Gold Coast Suns | 10.90 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers | May 31 | GWS Giants | 53.20 |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows | May 31 | Adelaide Crows | -0.40 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 01 | Melbourne Demons | 4.30 |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 01 | Geelong Cats | -41.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »