AFL Predictions for Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 22.28 | 18.20 | 4.10 |
| Collingwood | 22.11 | 5.39 | 16.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.09 | 15.04 | 5.10 |
| Adelaide Crows | 19.96 | 2.69 | 17.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.33 | 22.65 | -9.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 10.53 | 21.95 | -11.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 8.32 | 5.99 | 2.30 |
| GWS Giants | 5.17 | 9.08 | -3.90 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.91 | -6.41 | 11.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 0.91 | 5.01 | -4.10 |
| Sydney Swans | -2.38 | 12.60 | -15.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.28 | 0.89 | -4.20 |
| Melbourne Demons | -3.62 | -0.21 | -3.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -7.22 | 7.63 | -14.90 |
| Essendon Bombers | -12.74 | -10.15 | -2.60 |
| North Melbourne | -27.96 | -37.08 | 9.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -30.36 | -31.00 | 0.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -32.46 | -34.67 | 2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers | May 29 | 90 – 72 | 40.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 30 | 107 – 56 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 31 | 64 – 75 | 10.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers | May 31 | 80 – 77 | 53.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows | May 31 | 41 – 131 | -0.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 01 | 63 – 91 | 4.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 01 | 73 – 116 | -41.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 05 | Western Bulldogs | 11.80 |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 06 | Adelaide Crows | 17.60 |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 07 | Sydney Swans | -17.00 |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 07 | Geelong Cats | 19.20 |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 07 | GWS Giants | 23.40 |
| 6 | North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 08 | West Coast Eagles | -6.50 |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 08 | Carlton Blues | 13.60 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood | Jun 09 | Collingwood | -25.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »