United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 11.78 | 13.41 | -1.60 |
| Bulls | 7.54 | 8.86 | -1.30 |
| Stormers | 7.53 | 4.17 | 3.40 |
| Glasgow | 7.23 | 6.18 | 1.00 |
| Munster | 3.36 | 3.65 | -0.30 |
| Edinburgh | 2.58 | 2.67 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | -0.29 | 1.29 | -1.60 |
| Connacht | -1.00 | -1.39 | 0.40 |
| Benetton | -1.18 | -2.32 | 1.10 |
| Ospreys | -1.21 | -2.15 | 0.90 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -1.63 | -2.74 | 1.10 |
| Ulster | -1.80 | -3.24 | 1.40 |
| Scarlets | -2.95 | -0.54 | -2.40 |
| Lions | -3.11 | -1.19 | -1.90 |
| Zebre | -10.57 | -11.02 | 0.40 |
| Dragons | -16.29 | -15.66 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 22 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munster vs. Edinburgh | Oct 11 | 20 – 19 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Scarlets vs. Stormers | Oct 11 | 0 – 34 | -0.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Lions | Oct 12 | 41 – 15 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Zebre | Oct 12 | 24 – 0 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Glasgow vs. Dragons | Oct 12 | 49 – 0 | 28.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Leinster vs. Sharks | Oct 12 | 31 – 5 | 18.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht | Oct 12 | 14 – 8 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Ulster vs. Bulls | Oct 12 | 28 – 7 | -4.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connacht vs. Bulls | Oct 18 | Bulls | -1.50 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby | Oct 18 | Cardiff Rugby | -12.70 |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Benetton | Oct 18 | Edinburgh | 10.80 |
| 4 | Lions vs. Scarlets | Oct 19 | Lions | 6.80 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Ulster | Oct 19 | Sharks | 8.50 |
| 6 | Leinster vs. Munster | Oct 19 | Leinster | 10.40 |
| 7 | Ospreys vs. Glasgow | Oct 19 | Glasgow | -1.40 |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Stormers | Oct 19 | Stormers | -11.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »