NFL Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
This is a new competition for me. It took some time to get the data into the appropriate form and understand the game schedule. I was very surprised by the lack of any significant home ground advantage. After speaking to someone familiar with the game, I did add a special home ground advantage for the home team when the game was played on a Thursday. The logic for that was the reduced number of away fans who might travel on a Thursday and the limited time the away team might have to accustom to a different field. That said, I don’t see a big effect in the data for those games.
What is notable about the results is that these games are hard to predict. One marker for this is the limited range of the current ratings, despite there being 32 teams. For the current predictions, the range is 16.52 compared to 26.66 for the Rugby Premiership where there are only 10 teams.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 9.12 | 3.32 | 5.80 |
| Seahawks | 8.19 | 1.60 | 6.60 |
| Lions | 7.49 | 9.26 | -1.80 |
| Packers | 6.15 | 5.92 | 0.20 |
| Bills | 4.63 | 8.28 | -3.70 |
| Patriots | 4.50 | -6.88 | 11.40 |
| Chargers | 4.02 | 2.67 | 1.30 |
| Texans | 3.98 | 0.65 | 3.30 |
| 49ers | 3.12 | -3.05 | 6.20 |
| Eagles | 2.35 | 12.46 | -10.10 |
| Jaguars | 2.35 | -6.28 | 8.60 |
| Steelers | 1.77 | -0.33 | 2.10 |
| Ravens | 1.37 | 11.27 | -9.90 |
| Broncos | 0.44 | 3.65 | -3.20 |
| Bears | 0.32 | -3.03 | 3.40 |
| Chiefs | 0.18 | 3.00 | -2.80 |
| Bengals | 0.13 | 3.45 | -3.30 |
| Vikings | -0.01 | 2.67 | -2.70 |
| Colts | -0.36 | -5.52 | 5.20 |
| Falcons | -2.36 | -3.22 | 0.90 |
| Dolphins | -2.83 | 0.72 | -3.60 |
| Cowboys | -3.30 | -3.23 | -0.10 |
| Saints | -3.71 | -5.63 | 1.90 |
| Buccaneers | -4.35 | 3.86 | -8.20 |
| Browns | -4.40 | -9.54 | 5.10 |
| Raiders | -4.97 | -5.45 | 0.50 |
| Panthers | -5.80 | -7.28 | 1.50 |
| Commanders | -5.95 | 2.74 | -8.70 |
| Giants | -5.99 | -7.54 | 1.50 |
| Cardinals | -6.37 | 0.58 | -7.00 |
| Titans | -6.46 | -9.40 | 2.90 |
| Jets | -7.40 | -3.87 | -3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 240 matches played, 146 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks vs. Rams | Dec 18 | 38 – 37 | -0.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Ravens vs. Patriots | Dec 21 | 24 – 28 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Dec 21 | 23 – 20 | -1.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Browns vs. Bills | Dec 21 | 20 – 23 | -10.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Chargers | Dec 21 | 17 – 34 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Saints vs. Jets | Dec 21 | 29 – 6 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Giants vs. Vikings | Dec 21 | 13 – 16 | -5.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Chiefs | Dec 21 | 26 – 9 | -10.30 | FALSE |
| 9 | Cardinals vs. Falcons | Dec 21 | 19 – 26 | -1.50 | TRUE |
| 10 | Broncos vs. Jaguars | Dec 21 | 20 – 34 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 11 | Lions vs. Steelers | Dec 21 | 24 – 29 | 9.40 | FALSE |
| 12 | Texans vs. Raiders | Dec 21 | 23 – 21 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 13 | Dolphins vs. Bengals | Dec 21 | 21 – 45 | 2.60 | FALSE |
| 14 | Bears vs. Packers | Dec 21 | 22 – 16 | -7.40 | FALSE |
| 15 | Commanders vs. Eagles | Dec 21 | 18 – 29 | -5.90 | TRUE |
| 16 | Colts vs. 49ers | Dec 22 | 27 – 48 | 1.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commanders vs. Cowboys | Dec 25 | Cowboys | -1.70 |
| 2 | Vikings vs. Lions | Dec 25 | Lions | -6.50 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Broncos | Dec 25 | Chiefs | 0.70 |
| 4 | Browns vs. Steelers | Dec 28 | Steelers | -5.20 |
| 5 | Colts vs. Jaguars | Dec 28 | Jaguars | -1.70 |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Buccaneers | Dec 28 | Dolphins | 2.50 |
| 7 | Jets vs. Patriots | Dec 28 | Patriots | -10.90 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Saints | Dec 28 | Saints | -1.80 |
| 9 | Bills vs. Eagles | Dec 28 | Bills | 3.30 |
| 10 | 49ers vs. Bears | Dec 28 | 49ers | 3.80 |
| 11 | Packers vs. Ravens | Dec 28 | Packers | 5.80 |
| 12 | Chargers vs. Texans | Dec 28 | Chargers | 1.00 |
| 13 | Falcons vs. Rams | Dec 29 | Rams | -10.50 |
| 14 | Panthers vs. Seahawks | Dec 29 | Seahawks | -13.00 |
| 15 | Bengals vs. Cardinals | Dec 29 | Bengals | 7.50 |
| 16 | Raiders vs. Giants | Dec 29 | Raiders | 2.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »