Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
As an indication of the care needed at present in determining home ground advantage, the comprehensive scores site flashscore.com.au still has the Rebels v Waratahs game as being played in Melbourne. (Click on the match result to see the scorers and times and match details at the bottom.) Fortunately I checked beforehand that it was to be played in Sydney so I gave the Waratahs home ground advantage and predicted them to win. Otherwise I would have predicted the Rebels, even if played on a neutral ground.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brumbies | 2.90 | 4.67 | -1.80 |
| Reds | 0.41 | -0.31 | 0.70 |
| Rebels | -3.26 | -5.52 | 2.30 |
| Waratahs | -4.64 | -7.12 | 2.50 |
| Force | -13.69 | -10.00 | -3.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brumbies vs. Force | Aug 28 | 31 – 14 | 22.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Aug 29 | 38 – 32 | 2.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebels vs. Force | Sep 04 | Rebels | 10.40 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Sep 05 | Reds | 2.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »