NFL Predictions for Week 18
Team Ratings for Week 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 8.75 | 1.60 | 7.20 |
| Rams | 7.84 | 3.32 | 4.50 |
| Patriots | 6.37 | -6.88 | 13.30 |
| Lions | 5.74 | 9.26 | -3.50 |
| Texans | 4.69 | 0.65 | 4.00 |
| Packers | 4.15 | 5.92 | -1.80 |
| Bills | 4.03 | 8.28 | -4.30 |
| Ravens | 3.36 | 11.27 | -7.90 |
| Chargers | 3.31 | 2.67 | 0.60 |
| 49ers | 3.15 | -3.05 | 6.20 |
| Eagles | 2.95 | 12.46 | -9.50 |
| Jaguars | 2.95 | -6.28 | 9.20 |
| Vikings | 1.74 | 2.67 | -0.90 |
| Bengals | 1.57 | 3.45 | -1.90 |
| Broncos | 1.53 | 3.65 | -2.10 |
| Steelers | 0.60 | -0.33 | 0.90 |
| Bears | 0.29 | -3.03 | 3.30 |
| Chiefs | -0.90 | 3.00 | -3.90 |
| Colts | -0.96 | -5.52 | 4.60 |
| Falcons | -1.08 | -3.22 | 2.10 |
| Cowboys | -2.55 | -3.23 | 0.70 |
| Dolphins | -2.76 | 0.72 | -3.50 |
| Saints | -2.84 | -5.63 | 2.80 |
| Browns | -3.23 | -9.54 | 6.30 |
| Giants | -3.75 | -7.54 | 3.80 |
| Buccaneers | -4.42 | 3.86 | -8.30 |
| Panthers | -6.36 | -7.28 | 0.90 |
| Commanders | -6.70 | 2.74 | -9.40 |
| Raiders | -7.20 | -5.45 | -1.70 |
| Titans | -7.34 | -9.40 | 2.10 |
| Cardinals | -7.81 | 0.58 | -8.40 |
| Jets | -9.27 | -3.87 | -5.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 256 matches played, 154 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commanders vs. Cowboys | Dec 25 | 23 – 30 | -1.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Vikings vs. Lions | Dec 25 | 23 – 10 | -6.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Broncos | Dec 25 | 13 – 20 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Browns vs. Steelers | Dec 28 | 13 – 6 | -5.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Colts vs. Jaguars | Dec 28 | 17 – 23 | -1.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Buccaneers | Dec 28 | 20 – 17 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Jets vs. Patriots | Dec 28 | 10 – 42 | -10.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Saints | Dec 28 | 26 – 34 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 9 | Bills vs. Eagles | Dec 28 | 12 – 13 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 10 | 49ers vs. Bears | Dec 28 | 42 – 38 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 11 | Packers vs. Ravens | Dec 28 | 24 – 41 | 5.80 | FALSE |
| 12 | Chargers vs. Texans | Dec 28 | 16 – 20 | 1.00 | FALSE |
| 13 | Falcons vs. Rams | Dec 29 | 27 – 24 | -10.50 | FALSE |
| 14 | Panthers vs. Seahawks | Dec 29 | 10 – 27 | -13.00 | TRUE |
| 15 | Bengals vs. Cardinals | Dec 29 | 37 – 14 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 16 | Raiders vs. Giants | Dec 29 | 10 – 34 | 2.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 18
Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons vs. Saints | Jan 05 | Falcons | 2.80 |
| 2 | Bills vs. Jets | Jan 05 | Bills | 14.30 |
| 3 | Bears vs. Lions | Jan 05 | Lions | -4.50 |
| 4 | Bengals vs. Browns | Jan 05 | Bengals | 5.80 |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Chargers | Jan 05 | Chargers | -0.80 |
| 6 | Texans vs. Colts | Jan 05 | Texans | 6.70 |
| 7 | Jaguars vs. Titans | Jan 05 | Jaguars | 11.30 |
| 8 | Rams vs. Cardinals | Jan 05 | Rams | 16.60 |
| 9 | Raiders vs. Chiefs | Jan 05 | Chiefs | -5.30 |
| 10 | Vikings vs. Packers | Jan 05 | Packers | -1.40 |
| 11 | Patriots vs. Dolphins | Jan 05 | Patriots | 10.10 |
| 12 | Giants vs. Cowboys | Jan 05 | Cowboys | -0.20 |
| 13 | Eagles vs. Commanders | Jan 05 | Eagles | 10.60 |
| 14 | Steelers vs. Ravens | Jan 05 | Ravens | -1.80 |
| 15 | 49ers vs. Seahawks | Jan 05 | Seahawks | -4.60 |
| 16 | Buccaneers vs. Panthers | Jan 05 | Buccaneers | 2.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »