NFL Predictions for the Conference Final
Team Ratings for the Conference Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 11.84 | 1.60 | 10.20 |
| Patriots | 10.06 | -6.88 | 16.90 |
| Rams | 6.30 | 3.32 | 3.00 |
| Lions | 5.54 | 9.26 | -3.70 |
| Texans | 5.51 | 0.65 | 4.90 |
| Bills | 5.10 | 8.28 | -3.20 |
| Jaguars | 4.42 | -6.28 | 10.70 |
| Broncos | 3.72 | 3.65 | 0.10 |
| Vikings | 3.09 | 2.67 | 0.40 |
| Ravens | 2.84 | 11.27 | -8.40 |
| Packers | 2.06 | 5.92 | -3.90 |
| Bears | 1.41 | -3.03 | 4.40 |
| Chargers | 0.96 | 2.67 | -1.70 |
| Eagles | 0.79 | 12.46 | -11.70 |
| 49ers | 0.61 | -3.05 | 3.70 |
| Bengals | 0.48 | 3.45 | -3.00 |
| Steelers | -0.75 | -0.33 | -0.40 |
| Colts | -1.15 | -5.52 | 4.40 |
| Falcons | -1.19 | -3.22 | 2.00 |
| Chiefs | -1.92 | 3.00 | -4.90 |
| Browns | -2.14 | -9.54 | 7.40 |
| Giants | -2.18 | -7.54 | 5.40 |
| Saints | -2.73 | -5.63 | 2.90 |
| Cowboys | -4.12 | -3.23 | -0.90 |
| Dolphins | -4.39 | 0.72 | -5.10 |
| Buccaneers | -4.55 | 3.86 | -8.40 |
| Panthers | -4.81 | -7.28 | 2.50 |
| Commanders | -5.09 | 2.74 | -7.80 |
| Raiders | -6.18 | -5.45 | -0.70 |
| Cardinals | -7.86 | 0.58 | -8.40 |
| Titans | -9.33 | -9.40 | 0.10 |
| Jets | -10.49 | -3.87 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 282 matches played, 170 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Bills | Jan 18 | 33 – 30 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Seahawks vs. 49ers | Jan 18 | 41 – 6 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bears vs. Rams | Jan 19 | 17 – 20 | -4.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Patriots vs. Texans | Jan 19 | 28 – 16 | 3.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Conference Finals
Here are the predictions for the Conference Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Patriots | Jan 19 | Patriots | -5.30 |
| 2 | Seahawks vs. Rams | Jan 19 | Seahawks | 6.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »