AFL Predictions for Week 6
Team Ratings for Week 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 29.31 | 26.06 | 3.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 24.75 | 26.20 | -1.40 |
| Geelong Cats | 21.26 | 26.75 | -5.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.14 | 22.83 | -2.70 |
| Adelaide Crows | 15.84 | 15.32 | 0.50 |
| Sydney Swans | 15.59 | 0.56 | 15.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 15.03 | 10.24 | 4.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 12.44 | 6.56 | 5.90 |
| Collingwood | 8.50 | 11.76 | -3.30 |
| GWS Giants | 4.07 | 9.54 | -5.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 2.83 | 1.64 | 1.20 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.47 | -7.63 | 1.20 |
| Carlton Blues | -12.34 | -4.77 | -7.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -14.48 | -14.65 | 0.20 |
| North Melbourne | -19.01 | -21.71 | 2.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -29.93 | -27.89 | -2.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -34.48 | -29.44 | -5.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -41.05 | -39.36 | -1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 36 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Apr 02 | 119 – 65 | 22.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 03 | 96 – 86 | -9.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 03 | 76 – 78 | 17.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 04 | 48 – 90 | -3.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 04 | 35 – 163 | -31.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 05 | 109 – 89 | -5.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 05 | 99 – 65 | 63.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 06 | 92 – 91 | 11.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 6
Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 09 | Adelaide Crows | 39.20 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 10 | Fremantle Dockers | -3.90 |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 11 | Brisbane Lions | -43.80 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 11 | Melbourne Demons | -32.80 |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 11 | Sydney Swans | 0.60 |
| 6 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 11 | Western Bulldogs | -9.20 |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 12 | Geelong Cats | 62.30 |
| 8 | GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 12 | GWS Giants | 38.50 |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 12 | Port Adelaide Power | 3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »