Top 14 Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.52 | 11.56 | 3.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.42 | 4.78 | 0.60 |
| Montpellier | 4.79 | -0.21 | 5.00 |
| Section Paloise | 4.17 | 2.21 | 2.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.55 | 1.22 | 2.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.18 | -2.17 | 5.40 |
| Clermont | 2.82 | 1.88 | 0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 1.82 | 1.88 | -0.10 |
| Lyon | 0.23 | -0.45 | 0.70 |
| Toulon | -0.18 | 3.49 | -3.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.23 | 0.59 | -1.80 |
| Bayonne | -2.27 | 1.48 | -3.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.56 | -3.37 | -1.20 |
| Montauban | -19.36 | -10.00 | -9.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 147 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Section Paloise | Apr 19 | 22 – 54 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 19 | 25 – 42 | -8.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Lyon | Apr 19 | 41 – 23 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montauban vs. Toulon | Apr 19 | 22 – 47 | -11.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 19 | 42 – 31 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Apr 19 | 45 – 15 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Apr 20 | 47 – 20 | 3.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Apr 26 | Bordeaux Begles | 7.10 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 26 | Lyon | 8.00 |
| 3 | Montauban vs. Racing 92 | Apr 26 | Racing 92 | -14.70 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise | Apr 26 | Stade Francais | 5.50 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Bayonne | Apr 26 | Toulon | 8.60 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais | Apr 26 | Stade Rochelais | -1.60 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Apr 27 | Stade Toulousain | 18.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »